Posting History
Julian Daniel wrote:
| > el embargo NO ha funcionado -- incluso le ha servido de alibi a castro. no
>> ha funcionado en CUARENTA años. yo no me explico cómo podemos seguir
>> aferrados a una política totalmente fracasada.
|
Veamos que podria pasar de levantarse el "embargo" , sere sencillo en mi analisis por supuesto, permiteme dar un ejemplo.
Se levanto "el embargo" !
La cadena Burger King abriria sus franquicias en Cuba, como se sabe, el negocio hay que hacerlo con el gobierno, pues a nadie de tu familia o de la mia, le permitirian participar de esa posibilidad, luego ningun cubano independiente se beneficiaria directamente de esto.
El gobierno por su parte seria el administrador del Burger King, por lo que controlaria la fuerza de trabajo, le pagaria a los empleados en pesos con salarios de miseria y estableceria su conocido sistema, Partido, UJC, y Sindicato para tener el poder total de la empleomania, por lo que tendrian que hacer todo lo que el gobierno les ordenara, ir a La Plaza, asistir a los Circulos de Estudios, hacer las guardias por la noche, pertenecer a los CDR, ser milicianos y todo lo demas, de lo contrario, pues se le da de baja al trabajador "gusano" y se le da la plaza al que sea revolucionario y tenga mas meritos.
No te suena esto familiar ? asi fue en toda mi etapa de trabajador en Cuba.
La cosa seria muy distinta si el gobierno de Cuba les permitiera a los cubanos de la isla el independizarse y hacer el negocio directo con la Burger King, como sucede en el resto de los paises democraticos, y el ejemplo se puede hacer con otro negocio cualquiera, como el de abrir una peleteria que siempre pongo yo, desde aqui cualquier cubano podria abrir un negocio en sociedad con su familia o amigos en Cuba.
Pero no, el gobierno de Cuba no permite esto, de ninguna manera, y la razon es simple, todo trabajador que se independiza economicamente tambien se independiza politicamente, por lo que el gobierno pierde el control sobre ellos, esos trabajadores "cuenta-propistas" ni van a La Plaza, ni asisten a Circulos de Estudios, ni son del Partido, ni son de la UJC, ni son de los CDR, ni son milicianos, ni participan en nada, como es natural, el gobierno no puede tolerar esto, esos "libres" no son revolucionarios.
Veamos que pasaria si levantaran el "embargo" , Cuba se inundaria de turistas, esos dolares irian a parar a las manos del gobierno, con este dinero mejorarian los hoteles, los restaurantes, y toda la infraestructura del turismo, abririan nuevos centros de trabajo, y habrian mas plazas de trabajo, pondrian a trabajar de nuevo a todos los desempleados que hay y no solo eso, los tendrian otra vez bajo control.
Los Paladares y las Casas Particulares serian cerrados, esto es bien facil de hacer, pocas palabras de Fidel terminarian con ellos:
"La Revolucion no puede permitir que en su seno hayan algunos que se enriquezcan facilmente, mientras el pueblo trabaja y se sacrifica"
Palabras magicas ! que acabarian con estos "libres" .
Otras pocas palabras mas de Fidel y le seria prohibido a los cubanos el hablar o acercarse a los turistas, tal y como era antes, "El pueblo tiene que estar siempre atento, hay muchos enemigos que nos acechan y nos quieren destruir".
Palabras magicas ! y con estas, nadie no autorizado podra hablar o entrar en contacto con los turistas.
Es probable que haya una mejoria economica, como se va a reflejar esta "mejoria" en el pueblo ? a lo mejor le dan 2 libras de mas de arroz y 3 libras mas de papas al mes, va a haber una apertura politica ? van a haber cambios de orden democraticos ? van a permitirle al pueblo que exprese libremente su opinion, su individualidad ?
Para que continuar y repetir lo mismo, Fidel ha dicho bien claro esto, NO habran cambios ! los cambios se hicieron en el 1959 ! y yo creo a Fidel en este sentido al pie de la letra, para que continuar entonces repitiendo lo mismo ?
Una vez que el gobierno vuelva a fortalecerse, habra mas control, esto se ve ya en Cuba, hoy se ven mas policias, mas carros patrulleros; en lugar de invertir el dinero en ambulancias se compraron carros para la policia, el control primero, el pueblo despues.
Si se levanta el "embargo" que no es otra cosa que hacer relaciones comerciales CON EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA, sin ningun compromiso de cambios, aperturas o concesiones democraticas por parte del gobierno de Cuba, no se resolvera lo verdaderamente importante.
Por todo lo dicho, yo creo que el tal llamado "embargo" debe continuar, en definitiva eso que llaman "embargo" no es nada mas que establecer relaciones con el malefico Imperialismo Yanqee.
GoLo
Subject: Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date: 1999/07/28
Author: pjdiaz
Posting History
In article <379EBDA5.C4CDF563@hotmail.com>, Julian Daniel
1) en los ultimos dos an~os, el numero de turistas ha, mas o menos, crecido por un 150%, ha llegado a 1.5
millones...
2) en los ultimos dos an~os, ha aumentado la represion.
me puedes decir si esto apoya a tu tesis y como? o por lo menos, puedes ofrecernos una explicacion de como
los mecanismos por los cuales el turismo previene el estalinismo funcionan (incluyendo, por supuesto, ya que no
han funcionado, una idea de a que nivel de turismo empiezan a funcionar)?
como siempre, curioso na' ma'.....
Posting History
In article
>
and the government does what benefits it, when it wants to how it wants to.
it was the government that legalized the dollar because economic pressure forced it to, it was the government that
decided to grow the tourist sector because economic pressure forced it to, it's the government that's cracking
down on the private economy because it has some economic breathing room... NOT foreigners and NOT tourists,
in a totalitarian system these are largely another tool for the government to remain in power, to control the native
population.
Posting History
In article
and do it quick, 'cause you might go blind soon.
Posting History
In article <379FA87A.B0A538F0@gmx.de>, Julian Daniel
In Guanabo I heard that 12 houses were takem from their "owners" and they were accused as pimps, trials are pending.
The government is tightening again the nuts.
GoLo
Posting History
In article
>
Been published in a number of places... I'm really surprised you haven't heard about it... then again, it doesn't fit with your Panglossian
theory, does it?
Cuz...well... we all know just how limited totalitarian governments are in enforcing their edicts... that's why everyone is reporting that
jineteras have been rounded up and crackdowns on renting rooms w/o a license, driving tourists have sharply reduced these activities.
Man... you really have no clue, do you?
Posting History
GOLO1945
>
> Por supuesto, si a ti te estan manteniendo tu no vas a trabajar, si de
> momento te cortan los subsidios y te tienes que poner a trabajar, pues
> entonces haces lo que sabes hacer, y en el caso de Cuba, como en
> todo el Caribe, el Turismo es la riqueza a explotar, mientras tanto, pues
> para que explotar ninguna riqueza o siquiera buscar trabajo.
Posting History
Suscribo totalmente tu analisis, GoLo, y por supuesto tambien tu conclusion:
EMBARGO SI !!!!
El dia que alguien de un escenario plausible de posibles cambios positivos despues de
levantar el embargo yo con mucho gusto reconsidero mi posicion. Desgraciadamente,
tales escenarios no existen. Me opongo rotundamente a que se levante el embargo solo
"pa' ver que pasa". Basta ya de experimentos, Cuba no es un tablero de parchis.
Saludos.
In article <19990725130729.13701.00001174@ngol03.aol.com>,
golo1945@aol.com (GOLO1945) wrote:
Posting History
Pepe Pan
>
> > el efecto "contaminante" del american business me parece "escenario
> > plausible" suficiente para intentar ver "qué pudiera pasar other than
> > the failed embargo policy".
>
> My dearest Julian,
>
> I'll respond in English for Mona to follow the thread. That "polluting
> effect" has done nothing to change any totalitarian system before. Even
> China, who is very very "business polluted" has not essentially changed
> anything of it's political system.
>
> So, if the effect of lifting the embargo will be a Chinese-like economy
> together with lack of freedoms and dictature... no thank you...
> In fact, that is what I think is the likely outcome of lifting embargo.
As far as the effect of increased tourism in destabilizing the Cuban government, I wrote
something about that on another thread, which I don't know if people saw, and is relevant
here. So I think I'll find that and paste it in here.
It was in response to something PJ Diaz wrote, commenting on Mona's description of
tourists.
-------------------------------------
pjdiaz
> In article <3797ee44.143448196@news.wcl.on.ca>, nomad@wcl.on.ca writes:
Although the Cuban government wants to earn money from tourism, they are very scared of
the changes tourism is bringing to the country. That is the reason for the recent laws
telling Cubans not to have contact with tourists. (But the more tourists there are, the
harder such laws are to enforce.) (I think the situation is already out of the government's
control, and they are scared.)
Tourism has substantially changed Cuba's economy, creating a growing private sector
(mostly black market, illegal, a challenge to the state economy). The whole flourishing of
the dollar economy has a lot to do with tourism, and people making money from the
tourists (as well as Cuban exiles sending money to their relatives).
There are of course negative effects on Cuban society of this dollarization and the fact of
everyone there trying to make money from tourists, such as the jineteras, the hustlers, and
increased theft and crime. But it has certainly increased the Cuban people's dissatisfaction
with the regime. Seeing people coming in from all over the world who have money, while
the Cuban's don't, seeing them be allowed to go into facilities where Cubans are not
allowed, has made the Cuban people increasingly angry with their government.
In the admittedly unusual cases (such as Mona and myself) (there are others too) where
Cubans and the foreigners actually get to know each other, not just as economic
transactions, the Cubans find out that the
stereotype of "norteamericanos" that they have been brought up with is simply not true.
They learn more about what's really going on here, that life in Norteamerica is not like what
they have read in "Granma".
I think the increased tourism in Cuba in recent years has made profound changes in the
society there. (I didn't say in the government--I said in the society, the people.) As I
mentioned, not all to the good-increased crime, etc. But there is certainly less support for
the government there than in any time in the 40 year history of that regime. And Castro is
really afraid of the changes created by tourism, although he still wants to make money
from it. I think that with increased tourism (such as when the U.S. embargo ends, which I
predict will happen in the next couple of years), these changes in Cuban society
and dissatisfaction with the regime will increase, and get more out of control for the
government.
Pepe Pan
>
> > The only difference is that Fidel wouldn't have us to blame for it any
> > more.
>
> So what? What matters here is whether situation in Cuba will improve or
> not, not whether he can blame us or not.
>
> Saludos.
For many years, "el bloqueo" has been the main subject of Fidel's long speeches. Frankly,
I don't think he really wants it to end. It's very convenient to him, and doesn't really hurt him
at all. (I don't think the timing of the shoot-down of the pilots was coincidental. Castro
wanted Helms-Burton to pass.)
Take away that myth, is like pulling away the Emperor's new clothes. Sure, there will be
some "true believers" (like "Dan Richardson" who writes here) who would support Fidel
under any circumstances, but a lot of his support is not so strong. When people see that
Cuba is still an economic disaster, after an end of the embargo, his big lie would be
exposed, and less people would support him.
So no, ending the embargo will not change Fidel's mind and policies. Nothing at all could
ever do that. He's probably the most stubborn person in the world. But I think ending it
would diminish a lot of the support for him.
And since the embargo is not achieving anything anyhow (I haven't read one post showing
any "logro del embargo") (you yourself said things would be the same in Cuba with or
without the embargo), why not end it, and lessen his support?
As I wrote in another post, more U.S. involvement in Cuba could help us have more
influence on the course of Cuba after Castro.
If the embargo is not achieving anything, other than giving Fidel a big excuse, why not end
it?
>
Posting History
In article
Esa presion economica es la que provoco las aperturas o lo
que le dieron por llamar "periodo especial", que dicho sea de paso esta terminando poco
a poco, en cuanto termine, todo
volvera a la normalidad de los a~nos 70's.
No "embargo" implica mas entrada de dinero para el gobierno, y mas entrada de dinero
implica mas control gubernamental,
los que piensan que eliminando el "embargo" comenzaran cambios y aperturas
democraticas se equivocan, y esto lo han
dicho una y mil veces los dirigentes de Cuba.
"No habran Cambios" lo de continuar con la discusion del levantamiento o no del
"embargo" no tiene nada que ver con lo principal o fundamental de la problematica de
Cuba, con
"embargo" o sin "embargo" NO habran cambios.
GoLo
Posting History Member Profile
In article <19990727224221.22914.00001416@ngol05.aol.com>,
golo1945@aol.com (GOLO1945) wrote:
> >el efecto "contaminante" del american business me parece "escenario
> >plausible" suficiente para intentar ver "qué pudiera pasar other
than the
> >failed embargo policy".
>
> Contaminantes ? quien se va a contaminar ? cualquier "bisnes" que
> se haga tiene que ser con Mule, y alla quien manda es Mule.
>
> GoLo
>
Fred
dejame ver... vamos a presentar datos....
>
>por el contrario a lo que tú crees, yo creo que una presencia masiva de
>turistas
>americanos en vez de promover el estalinismo (como tú crees), lo paliaría.
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/29
Author:
pjdiaz
i think it doesn't matter... it's growth is because and absolutely under the control of the what the government does.
>
>You don't agree that the black market, underground dollar economy has
>increased exponentially in recent years, due to foreigners coming in with
>dollars?
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/29
Author:
pjdiaz
by dr. pangloss, maybe.
>
>Yes, they could be fined if caught. But an increasing number of people are
>doing it anyhow, illegally, and I think that could be characterized as "out
>of control".
listen, mike... why don't you read up a bit on the changes that have occured in the past couple of years (you know that 30% *less* people
in the private sector that accompanied a doubling in tourism), then think about what the economic ripple effect of this means for the
non-government sector, then, finally, look up the meaning of "inversely proportional" and see what it does to your premise.
>The sheer numbers are getting beyond the government's control,
>and would increase with an increase in tourism.
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/29
Author:
GOLO1945
Also the one I like the most in Guanabo, they found some lobster in the freezer, besides closing the Paladar, even the freezer was
confiscated.
>*closed by the government*. my family was taken away the licence
>for running the paladar. i discussed it over here last year.
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/31
Author:
pjdiaz
You're wrong.... they do, they have.... licenses are down from a high of 240000 to 160000.
>
>And where do you get your 30% figure? I don't think the Cuban government
>publishes reports on the "private sector" there.
Now this is cute.... the government cuts down on "legal" activity, yet somehow for some reason, allows "illegal" activity to flourish.
>Besides, a very large percentage of the "private sector" there is illegal,
>not sanctioned by the government. (Obviously, since the government sanctions
>very little independent economic activity, and has been trying to crack down
>on it. But there's a lot going on there without permission.) People who are
>in an activity that is not permitted by the government are not going to
>broadcast that fact to any journalists, etc. Therefore, even if your figure
>of 30% less private economic activity is accurate, it only reflects the
>state-sanctioned private activity--paladares, licensed homes that rent
>rooms, etc.---not the much larger domain of unsanctioned private economic
>activity--people who rent rooms without a license, drive tourists places for
>dollars, etc., etc., etc., etc.
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/29
Author:
MS
Well, the sugar industry wasn't abandoned during all those years of Soviet support, was it? Nor the tobacco industry. Why specifically was
the tourist industry, which was large before the revolution, abandoned for all those years? The government was afraid of it. They still are, but
with the fall of the Soviet Union, they have no choice but to develop it, and hope they can control its side effects. But as I said, the more
tourism, the harder for them to control.
> >So, in the 90s, due to the pressure of a system that doesn't work (not
due
> >to the U.S. embargo), and the loss of support from the Soviet Union, the
> >Cuban government only very reluctantly started to turn to tourism as a
> >source of income.
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/26
Author:
Pepe Pan
CASTRO NO !!!!
Pepe Pan
> Yo no lo veo asi, lo que tu llamas embargo es la negativa del
gobierno
> de los EEUU a que sus ciudadanos inviertan dinero y hagan negocios
> con el gobierno de Cuba, y prohibirles que vayan de visita a Cuba.
>
> Veamos que podria pasar de levantarse el "embargo" , sere sencillo
> en mi analisis por supuesto, permiteme dar un ejemplo.
>
> Se levanto "el embargo" !
....
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/26
Author:
MS
I doubt Cuba would become like China economically. China's economy has essentially
become capitalistic, although they are still a dictatorship, and still call themselves
"communist". Fidel would never agree to that degree of capitalism. So, the theory that
Cuba would become economically successful with the end of the embargo doesn't hold up.
Cuba would still be an economic disaster, with or without the embargo. The only difference
is that Fidel wouldn't have us to blame for it any more.
> In article <379C2953.5954D44F@hotmail.com>,
> Julian Daniel
OK, the reason tourism promotes change in Cuba, has nothing to do with whether the
tourists intend to promote social change there.
>
> >And I did think of mass, packaged tourism to Cuba ... and how probably
> >90% of the visitors to Cuba are about what I was on this Mediterranean
> >cruise .. people on vacation ... looking to relax, forget their own
> >realities, get a taste of something different ...
> >
>
> ...........it's this that makes one wonder about all those theories of
> "tourists" being a force for political change in Cuba.
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/27
Author:
MS
Posting History
As you say, there won't be any difference in Fidel's policies with or without the embargo.
But I would venture to say that ending the embargo would greatly diminish Fidel's support
throughout the world. Although not many people on this newsgroup do so, many people
throughout the world (including some in Cuba) believe Fidel's lie that the U.S. embargo is
responsible for Cuba's economic crisis. The David vs. Goliath myth is strong. People have
a tendency to support the underdog. The mythology of the "little third world country
standing up to the big bad superpower that's oppressing it" resonates with many people.
> In article <933002639.789.50@news.remarQ.com>,
> " MS"
> Pepe Pan
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/28
Author:
GOLO1945
Pues yo si lo creo, dada la situacion economica creada por
el "embargo" el gobierno hizo unas pocas aperturas, cuando los rusos mantenian a
Cuba, no habian ni periodistas inde-
pendientes, ni cuenta-propistas, ni Paladares, ni casas
particulares, ni la facilidad de ir que hay hoy, por citar
algunas cosas.
>And since the embargo is not achieving anything anyhow (I haven't read one
>post showing any "logro del embargo")
Subject:
Re: discutio ad infinitum: EMBARGO
Date:
1999/07/28
Author:
diaz1111
GoLo, fidel quiere que lo contaminen con dolares, claro prestamos que no piensa pagar!.
> In article <379C2953.5954D44F@hotmail.com>, Julian Daniel